If you tell me you’ve found a way to increase your money in a month, then I’m not going to believe you. But if our family was starving and I owed someone money next month that I don’t have, I would definitely listen you. And I would probably believe whatever crazy prediction you have, because I’d desperately want and need it to be right.
I believe in prediction. and I think you also beleive in same. Predictions are hard to made without statistics. A lot of the reason it’s hard is because the visible stuff that happens in the world is a small fraction of the hidden stuff that goes on inside people’s heads. The former is easy to analyze; the latter is easy to ignore.
Historical data is a good fit to predict the future. But the most important events in historical data are the big outliers, the record-breaking events. They are what distorted the needle. We use those outliers to guide our views of things like worst-case scenarios. But those record-setting events, when they occurred, had no precedent. So the predictor who assumes the worst (and best) events of the past will match the worst (and best) events of the future is not following history; they’re accidentally assuming the history of unprecedented events happening doesn’t apply to the future.